Mortgage Rate Trends in Switzerland 2026: Should You Buy in 2025?

Evolution of mortgage rates in Switzerland: should you buy now?

Hesitating between buying at the end of 2025 or waiting until 2026 ? This page offers a comprehensive and neutral analysis of the Swiss mortgage rate forecast for 2026, set within Switzerland’s regulatory framework, with quantified scenarios and a decision-oriented action plan. The goal is twofold: to inform you and to make it easier to move to a meeting with an expert that won’t cost you a penny.

Context 2025 : established facts shaping 2026

Monetary policy decisions

Since 20 June 2025, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has kept its policy rate at 0.00 %. This level, confirmed by the decision of 25 September 2025, forms the basis of the short-term variable rate environment (SARON). It does not automatically imply identical fixed rates, but it anchors the short-term cost of money. It is therefore a highly important factor in forecasting Swiss mortgage rates in 2026.

Reference rate for rents

The Federal Office for Housing (FOH/BWO) announced a reduction of the reference interest rate to 1.25 % with effect from 02.09.2025 and quarterly publications. This indicator affects the evolution of rents and, indirectly, the rent/buy trade-off. You will have to choose : pay rent to an owner who will use your money to pay the interest on their own mortgage, or take out a mortgage yourself and pay the interest on your own loan.

Observed market movements

According to barometers from the Swiss financial and real-estate market (UBS, Comparis, Wüest Partner), 5–10 year fixed rates fluctuated moderately in 2025, while SARON-indexed variable costs remained close to their lows. Residential prices rose unevenly across cantons, with sharper adjustments in certain segments.

Forecast 2026 : evolution of mortgage rates in Switzerland

SNB signal and transmission chain

The trend in Swiss mortgage rates in 2026 will first depend on the SNB’s stance. A prolonged hold at 0.00 % would support low SARON rates ; conversely, a gradual normalisation would filter through with a lag. Fixed rates, for their part, embed expectations via the swaps*  curve: they can move ahead of a decision, up or down.

Central scenario

Working assumption for 2026 : stabilisation at a low level compared with the 2024–2025 average, with slight swings due to macro surprises (imported inflation, global cycle, currencies). In this context, the evolution of mortgage rates in Switzerland would remain contained.

Alternative scenarios

  • Inflation rebound : swap curve under pressure and a rise in 7–10 year fixed rates.
  • Marked slowdown : further easing in fixed rates, SARON unchanged if the SNB stays at 0.00 %.
  • FX volatility : temporary technical movements in margins.
Couple wondering whether to buy in 2025 or in 2026 to be happy

Affordability rules and prudential requirements (SBA/FINMA)

Affordability test explained

For a standard owner-occupied file, banks simulate your charges using an imputed rate of around 5 % (regardless of the market rate), add maintenance costs (0.8–1.0 %/year) and check that the theoretical effort does not exceed ≈ 33 % of sustainable gross income. This filter targets budget resilience.

Down payment and amortization

As a rule of thumb, at least 20 % down payment is required, of which 10 % must be “hard” equity (excluding the 2nd pillar). The debt must be reduced to 66 % of the lending value within a standard timeframe (direct/indirect amortization).

Practical implications

  • A low market rate does not soften the test : prepare your file (income, equity, expenses).
  • The quality of the property (energy, HOA, location) influences the decision and the margin.
  • Exceptions exist but remain limited and monitored.

Buy in 2025 or wait until 2026 ?

When to bring the purchase forward in 2025

If the targeted property is scarce, if your file passes the affordability test and if your horizon is long, buying in 2025 secures the property and a low financing cost. You reduce the risk of seeing the property’s price run away.

When to wait

If your down payment is tight, if you anticipate a change in circumstances (income, permit, taxation) or if you wish to top up your equity, waiting until early 2026 may improve your profile.

Mistakes to avoid

  • Focusing only on the “rate” and neglecting the 33 % effort.
  • Underestimating energy works and HOA charges.
  • Delaying to wait for a “perfect” low point : the availability of properties often matters more.

Cantonal notes : points to watch

Vaud (VD)

Reduction of the reference rate to 1.25 % applicable from 02.09.2025 ; plan for purchase costs (fees, duties). Be mindful of energy-renovation works.

Geneva (GE)

Tight market and specific processing times. HOA charges and local taxation weigh on the overall budget.

Zurich (ZH)

High competition for “move-in ready” properties. Being pre-qualified and responsive remains decisive.

Bern (BE)

Wide urban/rural gap : pay attention to transport links, energy costs, and the imputed rental value.

Practical guide : 10 steps to decide

Step 1 : define your budget

Calculate the 33 % effort using an imputed rate of 5 % and 1 % for maintenance. Adjust the budget if needed. Run a full simulation with our free online mortgage calculator.

Step 2 : optimise your equity

Check the share of your equity and the tax implications of a 2nd-pillar withdrawal. Keep a liquidity reserve.

Step 3 : compare lenders (banks and insurers)

Provide your profile and the property, and request structured offers (margin, fees, amortisation options, conversion possibilities). A professional broker will deliver all this free of charge and give you every explanation needed to make the best choice.

Step 4 : choose the rate strategy

100 % fixed, 100 % SARON or a combined (mixed) mortgage? A mix (e.g., 60/40) cushions timing risk.

Step 5 : plan amortisation

Direct or indirect via 3a ? Aim to reduce to 66 % within the required timeframe while preserving flexibility.

Step 6 : audit the property

Technical, legal, HOA, energy, easements. A sound property avoids unforeseen future costs. Your mortgage broker will assist with analysing the HOA documents and help you avoid unpleasant surprises.

Step 7 : anticipate ongoing costs

Insurance, maintenance, renovations, cantonal taxation. Simulate over 10 years.

Step 8 : secure the timeline

If the property meets your criteria, moving forward in 2025 can prevent later bidding wars. Otherwise, prepare for early 2026.

Step 9 : prepare the documents

Income, statements, assets, valuations, 2nd/3rd-pillar records, ID/residency documents.

Step 10 : take action

A meeting with a specialist helps refine the structure, avoid dead ends, and save time. Schedule a meeting with an expert.

Statistics and milestones to monitor in 2026

  • SNB decisions (quarterly) : policy rate and communication.
  • FOH publications : reference rate (March, June, September, December).
  • Rate barometers (UBS, Comparis, MoneyPark) and price indices (Wüest Partner).

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

Does the Swiss mortgage rate forecast for 2026 signal declines?

The central scenario is stabilisation at a low level. Further decreases cannot be ruled out, but they should not be the sole reason for your decision.

Is the variable SARON rate always cheaper than a fixed rate?

Not always. In the short term, it can be lower; a fixed rate “buys” visibility. Many borrowers opt for a mixed rate.

How does the ≈ 33 % effort work?

We add imputed interest, maintenance and required amortisation, then relate it to sustainable gross income. Beyond that level, affordability is compromised.

When should you convert a SARON tranche to fixed?

When a level suits you and your stability horizon increases (birth, career project, etc.). Plan for conversion windows.

Does the 1.25 % reference rate change the picture for rental investment?

It can dampen the growth of rents under contractual constraints, but improves tenants’ capacity to absorb. Net yield is calculated based on far more than this single parameter.

What purchase costs should be expected?

Notary, duties/fees, cantonal mortgage tax, dossier and valuation fees. Amounts vary significantly.

What do I risk by waiting until 2026?

Losing a suitable property, facing local price increases or a tightening of lending criteria. Conversely, waiting can strengthen your equity: assess your own benefits/risks balance.

For a fixed-rate mortgage, should I aim for 5, 7 or 10 years?

Align the term with your life plans and risk tolerance. A 5/10-year mix is common to smooth things out.

Buy in 2025 or 2026: what is the decisive argument?

The quality of the property and your sustainable capacity outweigh a short-term bet on rates.

Sources (official links and market references)

Disclaimer

This content is informative. The tables and examples are indicative and do not constitute an offer or a promise of rates. Granting a mortgage depends on your personal situation, lenders’ policies and the legal framework (SBA/FINMA). A personalised analysis is essential before any decision.

*An interest rate swap is like an agreement where two parties exchange how they pay interest: one pays a fixed rate and receives a variable rate, the other does the reverse, all calculated on a “notional” amount (the principal is not exchanged). In mortgages, banks use this mechanism to turn a variable cost (e.g., linked to SARON) into a fixed cost over 5–10 years; this helps determine the fixed rates offered to clients: swap rate (for the same term) + the bank’s margin. If market rates (swaps) rise, fixed rates tend to rise; if they fall, they tend to fall.

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Author : Jan Daiglon
Mortgage expert
Author : Jan Daiglon
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